Housing Models Compared: How Much Housing Does California Need?

Updated February 2021 | Gab Layton, PhD – President of the Embarcadero Institute

To the question, how much housing does California need, there’s a range of anwers. Only a couple make sense.

  1. Why do some state legislators refuse to trust the demographic analysis of their own Dept. of Finance?
  2. Freddie Mac’s analysis of California’s housing needs aligns closely with the Dept. of Housing and Community’s Pre SB-828 estimates.
  3. SB-828 introduced changes to HCD‘s methodology that resulted in a doubling of the estimated housing need. Most of the new increase falls under the heading of existing, not future, housing need.
  4. But when the question that is posed in government code “ do the estimates achieve a feasible balance between jobs and housing ?” is asked, the answer is that estimates from only two models – the pre SB-828 HCD and Freddie Mac – are feasible

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